“Learning to live with ambiguity is learning to live with how life really is, full of complexities and strange surprises” – James Hollis
I trust you are well and keeping safe amid what experts have called an unprecedented time in world events. This is likely as a result of the speed and the effect of the spread of COVID-19 virus to all the nations of the world in the past week. Imagine that Narenda Modi, the Prime Minister of the world’s 2nd largest population – India with over 1.3 billion people gave its citizens only four hours’ notice to commence a twenty-one day lock down of the entire country on Wednesday!
This week, I conclude my thoughts on How to Thrive in an Ambiguous World. For the past three weeks, I have used the VUCA framework to bring some structure into how to still thrive in these times. VUCA stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous world; it is a concept that originated with students at the U.S. Army War College to describe the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of the world after the Cold War.
The term ‘Ambiguous’ means – not clear or decided; having more than one possible meaning, and therefore likely to cause confusion. When things are not clear, you are not able to decipher what to do next and this could lead you to not taking a decision on matters, when you really should be. Right now, in the world we live in, things are not clear; people are confused. When you look at history to try and make some meaning of this type of event, like in the previous pandemics, while some things may be similar, the times and the circumstances we live in have changed and so cannot learn as much from them. The VUCA framework is however more recent that the previous pandemics – the last being the 1918 influenza pandemic.
Some of the ways you can thrive in an ambiguous world are:
Reduce the number of unknowns – In an ambiguous world, there are many unknowns, for example – one does not know when the lock downs will finally end; when the vaccines, which the world’s leading scientists are rushing to discover, will eventually be developed; the overall economic and social impact of this current pandemic. You can however try to reduce the unknowns by following and obtaining updates from leading global and national authorities, for example, Boris Johnson has placed the UK on a police-enforced lock down for the next 3 weeks. In India, the lockdown is expected to end on the 15th April, in the first instance. One can deduce that until the end of April, there will be severe restrictions around the world. You could also get forecast information from multi-lateral organizations like the IMF, WHO; and professional associations in your country. Gathering this type of information will help reduce the number of unknowns and help you to consider the implications for you and your organization.
Make short term decisions – As you reduce the number of unknowns, you will have to make short term decisions based on the short-term information you have gathered. This does not mean you throw out your entire 2020 plans out of the window and spend time being distracted by thinking of the full year. The end of the year is too far away to think of. A vaccine could finally be developed before the end of April, and the whole story changes. Your short-term span can be up to 90 days, say April – June, while keeping H2 plans intact. As one of my mentors said, “Avoid making knee-jerk reactions at this time.”
Embrace Agility – To be agile means the ability to move quickly and easily, and this necessitates increased risk taking and connections with new knowledge. During this time, it is vitally important, if you are a business owner to engage all members of your staff to come up with new ideas. During the week, I spoke to the CEO of a company I am closely involved with and he informed me that he and his leadership team have set up a ‘war room’ to review events and information daily. By coming together (virtually) daily for one hour a day, they are able to quickly assess their current situation, brainstorm on any possible consequences, and take short term decisions, and immediately begin to execute. If you are self- employed, this is the time to communicate with others who are self-employed like you, and brainstorm on current challenges to enable you come up with various innovative solutions. Events are moving so quickly on different fronts that you cannot have all the answers to make the best short-term decision.
Question: What else are you doing to thrive in these times?